BJ Penn (13-4-1) vs. Sean Sherk (35-2-1)
This should be a good fight depending on how long it lasts. And that comes down to
Penn's conditioning. All signs from Penn, including his last fight against Joe Stevenson, shows a fighter with a new and improved attitude.
Penn has the advantage on the feet and is considered one of the most talented Jiu Jitsu practitioners in the world.
Sean Sherk is a relentless wrestler with incredible speed and strength. But it seems at times that he isn't able to mount much of an offense on the ground.
My pick: BJ Penn will stop this in one of the early rounds. He will have to because if the fight goes into the later rounds, it means that Sherk is having his way with his grinding ground-and-pound.
Penn should be able to neutralize Sherk's wrestling with his Jiu Jitsu, get superior position, soften Sherk up with punches, and eventually tap him out. He could very well TKO Sherk if Sherk isn't able to get this to the ground. Penn have heavy hands and potent knees.
Tito Ortiz (16-5-1) vs. Lyoto Machida (12-0)
In maybe the most anticipated fight of the night, we will probably witness Ortiz's last fight in the UFC, especially after wearing a T-Shirt saying "Dana is my (expletive)".
This fight has been focused more on Ortiz's antics and the inability of the UFC and Dana White and Tito to get along.
This should be a great fight despite the sideshow. Machida is undefeated with an unorthodox Karate-style. He is a slick and powerful striker with impeccable timing which often times, as we saw in his last fight with Rameau Sokoudjou, lulls an opponent into a comfort zone. He is able to KO anyone with his hands or feet and has recently reached black-belt status under Alexi Cruz.
Tito is a great wrestler with good takedowns and ground-and-pound. But he is sorely outmatched in striking and Jiu Jitsu. A big mistake for Tito would be to turn this into a kickboxing match. And will he be able to handle the emotions for this fight and be able to focus on the sport instead of going out with a bang for the media?
My pick: Machida should take this one. Tito's only chance is to get the takedown and stay on top and grind it out. Every other situation goes to Machida. Tito has shown a lack of offense on the bottom and Machida has a great guard and sweeps. Tito should get flustered if he is unable to get this to the ground and Machida will pick him apart. Tito is a , but I think the emotions and stakes on this fight could weigh heavily on him. Also, Machida has learned that to be marketable, long, drawn-out chess match fights don't market well in the states.
Wanderlei Silva (31-8-1) vs. Keith Jardine (13-4-1)
As one of my favorite fighters and a former member of one of my favorite camps, Chute Box, Wanderlei Siva will be taking on another striker.
Silva is a vicious striker with elbows and knees being a big part of his offense. The Muy Thai plum (also known as the clinch) is a favorite tool of Silva.
Jardine is coming off a victory and one of the biggest upsets in UFC history, his defeat of Chuck Liddell by split-decision. He showed a smart game plan and stuck with it against Liddell. Firing overhand punches and leg kicks from the outside and he even dropped Liddell in the second round. He kept his distance and didn't make the mistake of stalking Liddell, only to walk into a big punch or kick.
My pick: In Jardine's fight with Houston Alexander, Jardine did get caught with some devastating punches and possibly an illegal knee to the head while his knees were on the ground. He looked trapped when Alexander got his hands on him.
Silva has one of the best clinches in the history of the sport, including two KO's over current light-heavyweight champ Quinton Jackson. I am going with Silva by KO. and I cannot fathom seeing him lose his fourth match in a row. Unlike against Liddell, I feel he will be able to tie up Jardine and let the knees and elbows fly.
Thiago Silva (11-0) vs. Antonio Mendes (14-2)
Thiago Silva is a quickly rising star. He currently trains with American Top Team in Florida and formerly trained with Chute Box . He's well grounded in Jiu Jitsu (holding a black belt) and muay Thai. He is a vicious striker to put it mildly, coming from the school that has produced, Wanderlei, Pele, Shogun, Ninja and Anderson Silva.
Mendes is a relatively unknown fighter with a well-rounded game. He is making his Octagon debut which alone buckles many fighters.
Although the betting odds have Silva as a huge favorite, Mendes won't go out quietly. I feel this fight could have a lot of fireworks.
My pick: Silva by TKO, and violently. I think this could turn into a slugfest with a flash KO.
Wilson Gouveia (10-4) vs. Goran Reljic (7-0)
Wilson Gouveia trains with American Top Team and is a pretty good fighter, rattling off four straight wins after losing his UFC debut to Jardine.
Reljic a BJJ specialist, training at Gracie Barra in the UK. Five of his victories have come by way of submission, with one TKO and one unanimous decision.
My pick: Gouveia by decision. This could be a Jiu Jitsu chess match with not much excitement. But then again, it isn't over till it's over.
Leave a comment